New Paper on the Causes of Civil War

This semester I'm taking a course on Extremism. For my mid-term paper, I looked at statistical studies of the causes of civil wars. Not to worry, though. There's not much "math stuff" in this paper. The paper is designed as a short, readable, practical introduction to the findings of the statistical literature. Basically I just explain which variables have been found to be significant, and draw out a few of the possible policy implications of these findings. I also look briefly at US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and conclude that it was probably misguided, since those states are now much more fragile and war-prone than before we got mixed up in them.

Anyway, I've uploaded the paper over at Scribd. If you get a chance, take a look.

Red Cliff: A Chinese Mythic Tour-de-Force

John Woo's Red Cliff represents something of a coming-of-age for Chinese cinema. Both brutal and beautiful, this is a military epic that can contend for pride of place with the best American-made films in the genre. It is thematically similar to Kingdom of Heaven, in that it involves a small, embattled army using unconventional tactics to outwit a much larger attacking force. Here, however, the strategies draw on the insights of Taoism and Sun Tzu as well as the scientific invention that dominated Kingdom of Heaven. There are definitely Western influences at work here-- witness, for example, the feminist princess Sun Shangxiang who refuses an arranged marriage and fights alongside the men in battle-- but the film also reflects the beauty of China and of Chinese culture. Stunningly panoramic landscapes are complemented by beautiful Chinese poetry, profound philosophy, haunting traditional music, and artful dance and martial arts choreography.

Western viewers who disliked the unrealism of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon will be happy to know that there is no flying or magic here, though certainly some of the combat scenes have more in common with a Jackie Chan flick than with the gritty realism of some Western war movies. This serves to give the film a more mythic than historical flavor; indeed, the viceroy Zhao Yu and the strategist Zhuge Liang are more like mythic prototypes of a Confucian and a Taoist master than realistic characters. Fortunately they are portrayed tastefully enough that they don't come across as caricatures. All in all, a fine film that marks China's maturation as a fully modern power tempered by moral and religious sensibilities and possessed of exquisite aesthetic tastes. Well worth seeing in its original five-hour version rather than the much-reduced theatrical cut, which leaves out most of the character development and fixates on the battle sequences.

A New Blog Project

Every once in a while I run across a snippet or quotation about religion that I think is worth sharing, to see if I can generate some discussion. Because I didn't want to clutter this blog with a whole bunch of little quotes, I decided to create a separate blog for them, which I've titled Smidgens on Religion. I hope you enjoy what is posted there, and find it informative as well as thought-provoking. I also hope you'll feel free to discuss and share your thoughts. Happy reading!

Summer Rain

I just took a stroll in the rain. It's always cold when it rains back in Sacramento, so I jump at any chance to enjoy a summer drizzle. I love the erratic thrum of drops hitting the pavement, the way you can see waves of water in the air when there's a shift in the wind. I wandered along the sidewalk, breathing deeply, trying to catch the faint hints of wet pine on the breeze. Rich cinnamon incense wafted from an open window as I passed. I stretched out my hand to catch the raindrops on my fingertips, but they only teased me faintly. That's the thing about raindrops: they refuse to be caught.

As I meandered along, a steady stream of bubbles raced by me in the gutter. You know you're taking you're time when the gutter-bubbles are outpacing you. And you know you're at peace when you notice that sort of thing.