This semester I'm taking a course on Extremism. For my mid-term paper, I looked at statistical studies of the causes of civil wars. Not to worry, though. There's not much "math stuff" in this paper. The paper is designed as a short, readable, practical introduction to the findings of the statistical literature. Basically I just explain which variables have been found to be significant, and draw out a few of the possible policy implications of these findings. I also look briefly at US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and conclude that it was probably misguided, since those states are now much more fragile and war-prone than before we got mixed up in them.
Anyway, I've uploaded the paper over at Scribd. If you get a chance, take a look.
2 comments:
"misguided" is generous :)
I think FUBAR is more like it. Some terrorists hide out in a cave, so we occupy the country, try to reform its corrupt government, train and arm security forces, and pour billions of dollars into building projects.
Yes, I suppose I may have understated the problems a little bit. :)
But I'm trying to be as understanding possible, here. Bush genuinely believed that the spread of democracy entailed the spread of peace. That was a popular theory ten years or so ago, so he certainly wasn't alone in that. Most of the work debunking it was done after the invasion of Iraq. So it's not entirely his fault that he had a wrongheaded theoretical view of the international system.
But yes, spending billions of dollars blowing up another country and rebuilding it again is pretty stupid.
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